Debate Recap 2/20
As A$AP Rocky said, "everybody plays the tough guy 'til s**t pops off". For Mike Bloomberg, the corollary might be that every candidate is inevitable until the moment they aren't.
Maybe Bloomberg can buy himself the nomination, but he had even Joe Biden smelling blood in the water. He looked remarkably out of his depth and, for large stretches of the debate, was a complete non-presence. One gets the arch impression that beyond being a huge asshole he just does not care about Democratic values so much as getting himself elected. It was an historically poor performance. Maybe he can buy himself the nomination, but no Democratic constituency will enthusiastically vote for him, and that's fatal. (See under Clinton, Hillary.) When you spend a decent chunk of the evening either not engaging or defending NDAs for your sexual harassment accusers, you are having a bad time.
Maybe Bloomberg can buy himself the nomination, but he had even Joe Biden smelling blood in the water. He looked remarkably out of his depth and, for large stretches of the debate, was a complete non-presence. One gets the arch impression that beyond being a huge asshole he just does not care about Democratic values so much as getting himself elected. It was an historically poor performance. Maybe he can buy himself the nomination, but no Democratic constituency will enthusiastically vote for him, and that's fatal. (See under Clinton, Hillary.) When you spend a decent chunk of the evening either not engaging or defending NDAs for your sexual harassment accusers, you are having a bad time.
I thought Bloomberg's presence would accrue to the benefit of a progressive candidate, but I was wrong about who. Elizabeth Warren benefitted not just from Bloomberg being on stage, but being physically next to her, and the contrast was stark. Warren's performance was historically good and should remind her supporters of all the things they like about her. I don't know whether this will translate into votes: Warren probably needs a top-two Nevada finish to stay competitive, and debate performance weakly correlates with polling. None of that takes away from the masterclass that was her night. The most memorable points of the night all revolved around her in some way.
Biden was also the best version of himself: he had genuinely passionate answers, often in response to Bloomberg, and he ended the night without any major gaffes or misstatements. You can imagine this version of Biden in the general, and it's probably Trump-beating. Of course it's also possible to imagine the other version we've seen in prior debates, against which Trump would likely look hale and vital. Biden probably needs two or three more like this one; he really should have had them by now; that he hasn't explains how his campaign has gone.
Buttigieg spent the evening doing two things: painting himself as the midpoint between Bloomberg and Sanders, and attacking Amy Klobuchar. The first effort sounded good in the moment, except that each time Buttigieg attempted it, he was immediately interrupted by Biden pointing out (correctly) that he'd actually done the work Buttigieg merely claims to be capable of. This effort didn't really land, but it's easy to imagine that it would have if Buttigieg had more of a record to run on. His attacks on Klobuchar's voting record and work as a prosecutor were entirely fair game, but Klobuchar was prepared for these and parried them well enough that I don't think either candidate won a decision on points. These kind of squabbles don't make any of the participants look good, but on the merits, slightly more points to Klobuchar for successfully muddling Buttigieg's attacks.
One of the most interesting elements of the night was that each time Buttigieg and Klobuchar got into it, Warren stepped in to settle it--consistently on Klobuchar's side. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that because I'm not sure what to make of Klobuchar herself. She has lasted longer than I thought she would without ever being considered a leading candidate (NYT quasi-endorsement aside), or winning an actual (non-expectations-based) victory, or raising a significant amount of money. Warren didn't so much make an explicit play for Klobuchar's voters as she simply established herself as being simpatico with them. Maybe this is a long-term play, but if Klobuchar has lasted this long without doing much of anything it's fair to surmise that she's going to stay in the race until there's no more race to run. So I'm not sure what Warren stands to gain by propping up a candidate that, from her standpoint, both needs to exit and has no intention of so doing.
I don't have much to say about Sanders because he is a Metallica concert. You know you're going to get Master of Puppets, Enter Sandman, One, Unforgiven, and Battery at some point in the evening; the only question is when and in what precise order. This is to say that he turns in a reliably solid performance that is indistinguishable from every other for everyone but the most devoted fan. As a candidate on the debate stage he exists kind of orthogonal to every other participant because he consistently sticks to the level of policy even when going on the attack. He's not deep in the weeds of oppo files, or if he is, doesn't use it. The Sanders vibe is pure WYSIWYG: you're either gonna vote for it or not. That style is much easier to pull off when you're the indisputable frontrunner.
Buttigieg spent the evening doing two things: painting himself as the midpoint between Bloomberg and Sanders, and attacking Amy Klobuchar. The first effort sounded good in the moment, except that each time Buttigieg attempted it, he was immediately interrupted by Biden pointing out (correctly) that he'd actually done the work Buttigieg merely claims to be capable of. This effort didn't really land, but it's easy to imagine that it would have if Buttigieg had more of a record to run on. His attacks on Klobuchar's voting record and work as a prosecutor were entirely fair game, but Klobuchar was prepared for these and parried them well enough that I don't think either candidate won a decision on points. These kind of squabbles don't make any of the participants look good, but on the merits, slightly more points to Klobuchar for successfully muddling Buttigieg's attacks.
One of the most interesting elements of the night was that each time Buttigieg and Klobuchar got into it, Warren stepped in to settle it--consistently on Klobuchar's side. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that because I'm not sure what to make of Klobuchar herself. She has lasted longer than I thought she would without ever being considered a leading candidate (NYT quasi-endorsement aside), or winning an actual (non-expectations-based) victory, or raising a significant amount of money. Warren didn't so much make an explicit play for Klobuchar's voters as she simply established herself as being simpatico with them. Maybe this is a long-term play, but if Klobuchar has lasted this long without doing much of anything it's fair to surmise that she's going to stay in the race until there's no more race to run. So I'm not sure what Warren stands to gain by propping up a candidate that, from her standpoint, both needs to exit and has no intention of so doing.
I don't have much to say about Sanders because he is a Metallica concert. You know you're going to get Master of Puppets, Enter Sandman, One, Unforgiven, and Battery at some point in the evening; the only question is when and in what precise order. This is to say that he turns in a reliably solid performance that is indistinguishable from every other for everyone but the most devoted fan. As a candidate on the debate stage he exists kind of orthogonal to every other participant because he consistently sticks to the level of policy even when going on the attack. He's not deep in the weeds of oppo files, or if he is, doesn't use it. The Sanders vibe is pure WYSIWYG: you're either gonna vote for it or not. That style is much easier to pull off when you're the indisputable frontrunner.
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